FairKeel Deep-Dive — 1984 Tayana 37 (updated)
Updated with broker-confirmed evidence. Replaces the Wave 1 conditional verdict.
Automated system — the analysis can contain mistakes, including on technical details specific to this boat. Verify key findings against the listing, your own inspection, and your surveyor before acting on them. Treat this report as a high-leverage starting point for your due diligence, not as authoritative survey conclusions or tax/legal advice.
Executive Summary
Final verdict: Conditional Go — at an opening offer in the USD 39,500 – 41,500 band, with three survey-contingent items that determine whether you close at that price or walk.
Chuck Newman at the listing broker came back with substantive, evidence-cited answers across all 25 questions. The Wave 2 picture is materially clearer than Wave 1, and on balance the news is good — but with three specific concerns that have sharpened rather than dissolved.
What the broker resolved:
- Engine identity confirmed: Yanmar 3YM30AE. The spec-sheet "3QM30F" was a copy-paste error from another listing. Rebuild invoice from Mason's Marine in St Augustine on file — injectors, heat exchanger, raw-water pump, motor mounts, exhaust elbow, all gaskets. This is a modern 3-cylinder Yanmar with full rebuild documentation, NOT a rebuilt 1984 engine. Single biggest Wave 1 unknown resolved positively. Lever #4 dissolves.
- Mast: keel-stepped, confirmed. Spec sheet was wrong on the configuration; class-typical architecture intact. Re-anchors the keel-step bilge as the critical survey zone.
- Fuel tank: 100-gallon stainless steel, replaced 2018 by previous owner with invoice on file. NOT original 1984 aluminum. Material lever (#7, fuel side) dissolves on the fuel tank.
- HIN provided: TYA37123M84E. Boat is registered with the Tayana Owners Group; prior owner was an active member. Class-archive access available on ownership transfer.
- Detailed history on the 2019 rig refit, 2019 engine rebuild, 2021 chainplate seal re-bedding, 2021 electronics retrofit, 2024 starting battery. Service-history gap largely closed for the major systems.
What the broker sharpened — three new or upgraded concerns:
- Water tank is original 1984 aluminum with active weeping at one fitting the seller has been monitoring. This is a
[H]seller-admitted defect that did not exist in Wave 1. Aluminum tank end-of-life with documented weeping = budget for replacement within 12-24 months. Below-waterline access on a Tayana 37 makes this a $5,000-9,000 job. New lever. - Soft grounding in the Bahamas (2022) — sand bar, came off on next tide, no apparent damage per seller. Acceptable history IF the surveyor signs off on the keel-to-hull rounding, the encapsulated-ballast zone, and the deadwood joint. But a soft grounding is NOT a non-event on a full-keel boat — survey-mandatory inspection. New survey focus.
- Steering cable is original 1984. Never replaced. 42-year-old steering cable on an offshore-bound boat is
[H]end-of-life regardless of how it shifts in dock. Replacement is $800-1,800. Wave 1 had this as[?]; Wave 2 confirms original.
What the broker confirmed as gaps that remain [?] and must go to survey:
- Keel-step mast bilge has NOT been opened or inspected since the 2019 rig refit. The seller has no specific knowledge of moisture there. Survey-mandatory.
- Below-WL hose runs (head intake/discharge, galley sink drain, propane locker drain) are believed original 1984. Through-hulls were replaced 2022 but longer hose runs were NOT. Surveyor must evaluate; budget $600-1,500 for selective replacement.
- Behind the new 2021 Blue Sea DC panel, some original 1984 wiring remains in use. Common in retrofit work, but a 42-year-old wiring substrate behind a modern panel is a known offshore-safety gap.
The boat is well-documented, broker-responsive, and structurally sound to the extent broker answers + listing + vision can establish. The mission-readiness commissioning gap is unchanged from Wave 1 (no autopilot, no windvane, no satellite comms, no liferaft, no storm sails, no solar — totaling USD 23-44k of one-time costs the buyer absorbs because of the chosen offshore mission).
The three things that would change this verdict, from Conditional Go to Go or No-Go:
- Surveyor finds the keel-step bilge dry, mast-base un-corroded, and no chainplate-seal moisture readings >15%. → unconditional Go at the negotiated price.
- Surveyor confirms the 2022 grounding caused no detectable damage to the keel-to-hull rounding, the encapsulated-ballast zone, or the deadwood joint. → unconditional Go.
- Surveyor finds active moisture at the keel-step OR keel laminate damage from the grounding OR the water-tank weeping is the visible edge of broader tank failure. → No-Go, OR a structural-zone renegotiation that pushes opening offer into the low-USD-30s.
Evidence Confidence Movement
| System | Wave 1 | Wave 2 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Engine identity (3YM30AE vs 3QM30F) | [H] contradiction | [H] confirmed 3YM30AE | Resolved positive. Rebuild invoice on file at Mason's Marine. Biggest Wave 1 unknown resolved. |
| Mast configuration (deck-stepped vs keel-stepped) | [M] contradiction | [H] keel-stepped | Resolved. Spec sheet wrong; class-typical architecture intact. Anchors keel-step bilge as critical inspection zone. |
| Fuel tank material | [L] (SS claim) | [H] stainless, replaced 2018 | Resolved positive. Invoice on file. Removes class-typical aluminum-corrosion risk on fuel side. |
| Water tank material | [L] (SS claim) | [H] aluminum, ORIGINAL 1984, ACTIVE WEEPING | Resolved negative. New [H] seller-admitted defect. Spec sheet was wrong; tank is original aluminum with one fitting weeping. |
| Hull Identification Number (HIN) | [?] | [H] TYA37123M84E | Resolved. TOG-registered hull; class-archive access on ownership transfer. |
| Standing rigging — chainplate seals re-bedding history | [?] | [H] re-bedded butyl + 3M 4200 in 2019 | Resolved. Seven years on the seal material. Mid-life. |
| 2019 rigging contractor identity | [?] | [H] Marine Rigging Solutions, Stuart FL | Resolved. Invoice available. Established offshore-rig shop. |
| Bowsprit + bobstay + stem fitting | [?] | [M] bobstay replaced 2019; stem inspected then | Improved. Bobstay is 7 yrs old; stem fitting inspected once 7 yrs ago. Survey-focus remains. |
| Engine rebuild scope (2019) | [M] | [H] injectors + HX + raw-water pump + mounts + elbow + gaskets, invoice on file | Resolved positive. Full rebuild scope, not just top-end. |
| Transmission — Kanzaki KM35P, service history | [?] | [M] original 1984 Kanzaki KM35P; NO fluid service since rebuild | Resolved partial. Identified; fluid service overdue. ~$150-300 owner-DIY. |
| Battery bank | [?] | [H] 4× 6V Trojan 250Ah AGMs = 500Ah @ 12V (2021); separate 2024 starting battery | Resolved positive. 2025 service age, 5 yrs into typical 8-10 yr AGM life. Listing "2500 Ah" was a typo for 500 Ah. |
| Solar / wind | [?] | [H] none fitted | Resolved negative. Engine alternator + shore power only. Confirms mission-readiness gap. |
| Alternator | [?] | [H] Balmar 100A fitted at 2019 engine rebuild | Resolved positive. Quality alternator, 7 yrs in service. |
| Autopilot | [H] not fitted | [H] confirmed not fitted | Unchanged. |
| Storm sails | [?] | [H] not included; NO trysail track on mast | Resolved negative. Storm-sail retrofit requires track installation if buyer wants trysail. |
| Webasto A/C compressor — repair scope | [H] needs repair | [H] $1,800 repair OR $4,500 full compressor replacement; written quote from Florida Marine Cooling (Webasto-authorized) | Resolved. Quote in hand. Lever #2 now dollar-precise. |
| Isotherm refrigeration install gap | [H] not installed | [H] all parts on board; original fridge box undersized for upgraded cooling plate; ~6-8 hrs owner install | Resolved. Reason for deferral identified (box-vs-plate size mismatch); owner-doable. |
| Below-WL hoses | [?] | [H] longer hose runs (head, sink, propane drain) original 1984 | Resolved negative. Hoses are 42 yrs old. Selective replacement needed. |
| Steering cable | [?] | [H] ORIGINAL 1984, never replaced | Resolved negative. New [H] aged-system finding. Offshore safety. |
| Sail "Never Unfolded" claim | [M] | [M] main + staysail bent on once for fit-check; genoa never unfurled; UV covers present; stored in original bags in salon | Improved. Vetted; small detail but the seller's "Never Unfolded" was tighter than literal. |
| Most recent survey | [?] | [H] 2019 insurance survey "good condition" available to share | Resolved. Useful baseline; 6 yrs old, not a substitute for a current pre-purchase survey. |
| Soft grounding 2022 (Bahamas, sand bar) | [?] | [H] NEW disclosure — sand bar, came off next tide, no apparent damage per seller | NEW finding. Survey-mandatory keel-rounding inspection. |
| Forward head hatch staining (vision flag) | [L] | [H] failing bedding compound; slow drip in heavy rain; easy re-bed | Resolved. Confirms vision flag from photo 7. Minor. |
| Use history | [?] | [H] two Bahamas trips + one Bermuda run with current owner; mostly coastal FL last 3 yrs | Resolved. Light offshore use history; mostly coastal. Helpful context. |
| Seller willing to haul at survey | [?] | [H] yes, Camachee Cove, ~$500 cost can be split or absorbed by seller | Resolved positive. Seller cooperation signal. |
Populated 40-System Forensic Table (re-graded)
| # | System | Safety-critical | Age / hours | Evidence | Demonstrated working | Condition | Parts cost (USD) | Labor / access | 5-yr expected cost (USD) | Priority | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hull (fibreglass GRP) | Yes | 1984 (~42 yrs) | [M] | Installed | Topsides present well; below-WL not yet seen | 0 | 1.5× | 500–2,500 | Med | Survey-haul confirmed available at Camachee Cove. Soft grounding history makes haul-inspection mandatory. |
| 2 | Deck (GLASS, no teak) | Yes | 1984 build | [H] | Installed | Glass confirmed verbatim + vision | 0–500 | 1.0× | 1,500–4,000 | Low | Eliminates $15-40k class risk. Unchanged from Wave 1. |
| 3 | Keel-to-hull joint (encapsulated, full keel) | Yes | original | [M] | Installed | Soft grounding 2022 — sand bar, no reported damage; UNVERIFIED | 0 | 2.0× | 0–6,000 | High | Survey-mandatory. Keel-to-hull rounding, deadwood joint, encapsulated ballast zone — all must be sound-tested at haul-out. |
| 4 | Rudder + rudder post (keel-hung) | Yes | rebuilt 2021 | [H] | Powers on | Recently rebuilt | 0 | 1.5× | 500–2,000 | Low | Unchanged. |
| 5 | Mast (aluminum, keel-stepped confirmed) | Yes | original 1984 | [H] | Installed | Class-typical architecture confirmed | 0 | 2.0× | 1,500–4,500 | Med | Wave 2 resolves the spec-sheet contradiction. Keel-step zone now anchored as the critical class-specific survey item. |
| 6 | Standing rigging (Stayloc fittings) | Yes | new 2019 (~7 yrs) | [H] | Installed | Marine Rigging Solutions, Stuart FL; invoice on file | 0 | 1.5× | 1,000–3,500 | Med | Re-tune + tang inspection due at year 10. Stayloc allows re-tensioning. |
| 7 | Chainplates + seals | Yes | chainplates new 2019; seals re-bedded butyl + 4200 in 2019 | [H] | Installed | 7 yrs on the seal material | 200–600 | 2.0× | 1,000–3,500 | Med | Seal re-bedding cycle is 8-12 yrs. Mid-life. Survey: moisture-meter at every base. |
| 8 | Running rigging | Yes | new 2021 (~5 yrs) | [H] | Installed | Mid-life | 0 | 1.0× | 500–2,000 | Low | Unchanged. |
| 9 | Sails (main, staysail, 130% genoa) | No | new 2023/2024 | [H] | Bent on for fit; genoa unfurled never | Factory-fresh; UV covers present | 0 | 1.0× | 500–2,000 | Low | Stored in original bags in salon. Verify UV-cover quality on the genoa. |
| 10 | Engine — Yanmar 3YM30AE 30hp | Yes | rebuilt 2019, <100 hrs | [H] | Installed; runs per seller | Modern 3-cyl Yanmar, full rebuild scope, invoice on file | 0 | 1.25× | 1,500–3,500 | Med | Resolved. Mason's Marine St Augustine 2019: injectors, HX, raw-water pump, mounts, elbow, gaskets. |
| 11 | Transmission — Kanzaki KM35P | Yes | original 1984 | [M] | Installed; shifts cleanly per seller | Original; fluid service overdue | 0 | 1.5× | 500–1,500 | Med | Fluid + filter service is owner-DIY ($150-300). Internal condition unknown; KM35Ps generally robust. |
| 12 | Propeller shaft + cutlass bearing | Yes | new prop 2022; shaft SS original | [M] | Installed | New prop 2022 | 100–400 | 1.5× | 500–1,500 | Low | Cutlass bearing not specifically addressed; survey verify. |
| 13 | Fuel tank — 100 gal stainless | Yes | replaced 2018 by previous owner | [H] | Installed | SS, 7 yrs old, invoice on file | 0 | 2.0× | 0–1,000 | Low | Resolved positive. Removes class-typical aluminum-tank risk on fuel side. |
| 13a | Water tank — 100 gal aluminum | Yes | ORIGINAL 1984, weeping at one fitting | [H] | Installed | End-of-life seller-admitted | 1,500–3,500 | 2.0× | 4,500–9,000 | High | New seller-admitted defect. Replacement project within 12-24 months. Full-keel access multiplier. Negotiation lever. |
| 14 | Fuel lines, Racor, lift pump | Yes | scope unclear; raw-water pump replaced at engine rebuild | [M] | [?] | Engine-side likely fresh; tank-to-engine line age unclear | 200–500 | 1.0× | 400–1,200 | Med | Confirm Racor service intervals + lines at survey. |
| 15 | Through-hulls + seacocks | Yes | new 2022 (~4 yrs) | [H] | Installed | "All new" 2022 | 0 | 2.0× | 0–1,500 | Low | Unchanged. Survey: confirm all turn freely. |
| 16 | Below-WL hoses (longer runs) | Yes | ORIGINAL 1984 — head intake/discharge, galley sink drain, propane drain | [H] | Installed | 42 yrs old | 300–800 | 1.5× | 1,000–2,500 | High | Resolved negative. Through-hull replacement in 2022 was incomplete on hose-run scope. Selective replacement needed. |
| 17 | Steering system (cable + quadrant) | Yes | ORIGINAL 1984 — never replaced | [H] | Powers on; shifts cleanly per seller | 42 yrs old | 400–800 | 1.5× | 800–1,800 | High | Resolved negative. Pre-departure replacement strongly recommended for offshore. New [H] lever. |
| 18 | Emergency tiller | Yes | original | [H] | On board per broker | Present | 100–300 | 1.0× | 0–300 | Low | Verify fit at survey. |
| 19 | Electrical wiring (DC + AC) | Yes | new Blue Sea 12-position panel 2021; some 1984 wiring behind panel remains | [H] | Installed | Mixed-age substrate | 200–800 | 1.5× | 800–3,000 | Med | Common retrofit pattern. Survey: behind-panel inspection + verify wire gauge sizing. |
| 20 | Batteries — 4× 6V Trojan 250Ah AGM = 500Ah @ 12V; sep. start battery 2024 | Yes | house 2021 (~5 yrs); start 2024 | [H] | Installed | Mid-life house bank; new start | 0 | 1.0× | 1,500–2,800 | Med | Resolved. "2500 Ah" listing was typo; actual is 500 Ah. Replacement at year 8-10 (~2029-2031). |
| 21 | Solar / wind / charging | No | none fitted | [H] | N/A | Engine alternator + shore power only | 2,500–5,000 | 1.0× | 0 (recurring); see commissioning | High | Resolved negative. Offshore commissioning gap. |
| 22 | Inverter / charger | No | unknown make + age | [?] | [?] | Not addressed by broker | 500–2,500 | 1.0× | 500–2,000 | Med | Outstanding broker question; surface at survey. |
| 23 | Alternator — Balmar 100A | Yes | 2019 (~7 yrs) | [H] | Installed | Quality unit, mid-life | 0 | 1.0× | 0–800 | Low | Resolved positive. External regulator? Confirm at survey. |
| 24 | Watermaker | No | not fitted | [H] | N/A | Not present | 4,000–7,000 | 1.5× | 0; see commissioning | Med | Mission-readiness commissioning gap. |
| 25 | Refrigeration — Isotherm 2022 | No | parts on board; not installed; ~6-8 hrs owner DIY | [H] | Non-working | Box-vs-plate size mismatch was the deferral reason | 0–800 (box mod) | 1.0× | 800–2,200 | Med | Owner-DIY. May need fridge-box modification for the upgraded cooling plate. |
| 26 | Plumbing (pumps, fixtures, hot water) | No | hot water 2022; others mixed | [M] | [?] | Hot water [H] 2022; pump ages mixed |
200–800 | 1.25× | 500–1,500 | Low | Vision confirms galley clean. |
| 27 | Head + holding tank | Yes | original head; 30-gal holding | [L] | [?] | Vision: clean | 300–1,500 | 1.5× | 500–2,000 | Med | Joker valve service typical. |
| 28 | Propane locker + lines | Yes | unknown service history; propane drain hose is original 1984 | [L] | [?] | Compliance status unverified | 200–600 | 1.0× | 400–1,200 | Med | Solenoid + locker drain compliance for offshore. Drain hose included in #16 scope. |
| 29 | Navigation electronics — Raymarine Axiom+9 + i70 + ICOM M-506 | No | new 2021 (~5 yrs) | [H] | Installed | Current-gen | 0 | 1.0× | 500–1,500 | Low | Unchanged. |
| 30 | Autopilot | Yes | NOT fitted | [H] | N/A | Not present | 4,500–7,500 | 1.5× | 0; see commissioning | High | Confirmed. Commissioning gap. |
| 31 | Self-steering windvane | No | not fitted (Wave 1 corrected "Winddex"=Windex) | [H] | N/A | Not present | 4,500–8,000 | 1.5× | 0; see commissioning | High | Confirmed. Commissioning gap. |
| 32 | VHF/AIS — ICOM M-506 (with GPS) | Yes | new 2021 | [H] | Installed | Current-gen + NMEA2K | 0 | 1.0× | 0–500 | Low | Unchanged. |
| 32a | SSB / Iridium / Starlink | No | none | [H] | N/A | Not present | 1,500–4,000 | 1.0× | 0; see commissioning | Med | Commissioning gap. |
| 33 | Anchoring — new Rocna + 250' chain | Yes | new 2021 | [H] | Installed | Gold-standard offshore ground tackle | 0 | 1.0× | 200–800 | Low | Unchanged. Verify chain end-for-end inspection cycle. |
| 34 | Windlass — Lewmar w/ remote | Yes | new 2021 | [H] | Installed | Current-gen | 0 | 1.0× | 200–600 | Low | Unchanged. |
| 35 | Winches + deck hardware | No | original 1984 plus upgrades | [?] | [?] | Service history unclear | 200–500 | 1.0× | 500–1,500 | Low | Survey: pawl + bearing service overdue if untouched. |
| 36 | Canvas / dodger / bimini | No | unknown age | [?] | [?] | Vision: blue canvas covers visible on photos 1-3 | 500–2,500 | 1.0× | 1,000–3,500 | Low | UV-driven wear item. Photograph at survey for replacement cycle planning. |
| 37 | Teak deck condition | N/A | N/A — no teak decks | [H] | N/A | None fitted | 0 | — | 0 | Low | Class-risk eliminated. |
| 38 | Bilge pumps + high-water alarm | Yes | unknown ages | [?] | [?] | Not addressed | 200–600 | 1.0× | 400–1,200 | Med | Offshore-mandatory: minimum 2 bilge pumps + high-water alarm. Verify at survey. |
| 39 | Fire safety (extinguishers, fixed system) | Yes | unknown ages | [?] | [?] | Not addressed | 300–800 | 1.0× | 500–1,200 | Med | Inspection + rotation cycle. Engine-bay fixed system: verify presence + service date. |
| 40 | Dinghy / outboard | No | not mentioned | [?] | [?] | Not addressed; presumed not included | 0 | 1.0× | 0; commissioning if needed | Low | Outstanding broker question. |
| 41 | Interior condition + cushions | No | upholstery new | [H] | Installed | Vision: excellent | 0 | 1.0× | 500–1,500 | Low | Confirmed. |
| 42 | HVAC — Webasto FCF 16,000 | No | 2023 (~3 yrs), needs compressor repair | [H] | Non-working | Compressor failure | 1,800–4,500 | 1.0× | 1,800–4,500 | High | Quote from Florida Marine Cooling (Webasto-authorized). $1,800 compressor repair OR $4,500 full replacement. Wave 1 lever sharpens to a precise number. |
| 43 | Documentation / title / HIN | Yes | HIN TYA37123M84E confirmed; TOG-registered | [H] | N/A | Clean | 0 | — | 0–200 | Low | Resolved positive. TOG access on ownership transfer. Federal documentation choice TBD. |
| 44 | Liferaft + EPIRB + offshore safety | Yes | none fitted | [H] | N/A | Not present | 3,500–5,500 | 1.0× | 0; see commissioning | High | Commissioning gap. |
Three-Scenario Fair-Value Range (narrowed)
Wave 2 ranges are tightened materially. The dispersion across Clean / Normal / Bad has narrowed from ~USD 17,000 in Wave 1 to ~USD 11,000 in Wave 2. Engine identity, mast configuration, and fuel tank material all resolved positively; water tank, steering cable, hoses, and the 2022 grounding sharpened negatively.
| Scenario | Assumption | Fair-value range (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Clean Survey Case | Keel-step bilge dry; chainplate-seal moisture readings <15%; 2022 grounding caused no detectable damage to keel-rounding / encapsulated ballast / deadwood joint; water-tank weeping confined to one fitting (not broader); aluminum tank serviceable for 18-24 months before replacement | 42,500 – 45,500 |
| Normal Older Boat | Keel-step bilge shows historical moisture but no rot; one chainplate seal needs re-bedding (~$300-600); 2022 grounding caused minor cosmetic abrasion on keel laminate with no structural concern; water-tank weeping confirms tank end-of-life (replacement scheduled within 12 months, $5-9k); below-WL hose replacement adds $1-2k; steering cable replacement before offshore ($1-1.5k) | 39,000 – 42,500 |
| Bad Survey Case | Keel-step bilge wet with mast-base corrosion; 2022 grounding caused detectable keel-laminate damage or encapsulated-ballast moisture intrusion (structural inspection + repair $4-10k); water-tank failure beyond the one fitting; chainplate-seal moisture at multiple bases triggering bulkhead remediation | 32,000 – 39,000 |
Asking price: USD 44,900.
Position vs ranges: At the top of Normal Older Boat range. The Wave 2 evidence places the asking price right at the upper edge of the Normal case — fair as a number, defensible given the documented refit, but with three specific findings that justify a measurable negotiation. The boat is not overpriced in absolute terms; it is priced as if the Clean Survey Case will obtain, and the Wave 2 evidence introduces three reasons to expect at least the Normal Case.
Recommended opening offer: USD 39,500 – 41,500. This is the lower-middle of the Normal Older Boat range. Anchored on three Wave 2-confirmed [H] items the seller has acknowledged: the water-tank weeping (new), the A/C compressor repair (Wave 1 carried forward with precise $1,800-4,500 quote), and the 2022 soft grounding requiring survey verification. Plus the documented price-history pattern (two prior reductions totaling 18.2%) demonstrating seller market-meeting behavior.
If the Bad Survey Case findings emerge, the negotiation moves to the low-USD-30s OR walk. If the Clean Survey Case obtains, the close price likely settles in the USD 41,000 – 43,000 band.
Hassle Tax (recalculated)
11.0% — down from Wave 1's 12.5%.
The Wave 2 evidence moves the hassle tax slightly down on balance:
- Engine identity confirmed positive (-1.5 percentage points): the single biggest Wave 1 uncertainty resolved cleanly. Modern engine with full rebuild scope is materially less friction than a rebuilt original.
- Mast configuration confirmed (no change, but uncertainty resolved): keel-step inspection focus is now anchored, which is operationally clearer.
- Fuel tank confirmed stainless 2018 replacement (-0.5 ppt): removes a class-typical aluminum-corrosion friction source.
- Water tank confirmed aluminum original with active weeping (+1.0 ppt): new defined-scope project within 12-24 months.
- Steering cable confirmed original 1984 (+0.5 ppt): new defined-scope pre-departure project.
- Below-WL hoses confirmed original 1984 (+0.5 ppt): adds selective hose-replacement work.
- HIN + TOG-registration + 2019 survey availability + seller cooperation on haul (-0.5 ppt): friction-reducing administrative signals.
Net: -1.5 ppt = 11.0%.
This remains a moderately-low-friction read on a 42-year-old offshore cutter. The hassle tax does not reflect mission-readiness commissioning friction (windvane install, autopilot install, satellite comms, liferaft procurement) — those are mission-driven costs, not condition-driven friction, and live in the dedicated commissioning section (unchanged from Wave 1).
If the Bad Survey Case emerges on keel-rounding or keel-step bilge moisture, hassle tax climbs back to 16-20% and the verdict re-anchors.
Negotiation Lever Sheet (specific)
Twelve levers from Wave 1, re-graded with broker evidence. Several Wave 1 hypothesised levers dissolve (engine identity, fuel tank); several sharpen with precise dollar quotes (A/C compressor); three new [H] levers appear (water tank, steering cable, hoses).
| # | Lever | Evidence | Asking-price impact | Risk to walking | Wave 1 → Wave 2 shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water tank — original 1984 aluminum, active weeping (seller-admitted) | [H] Broker verbatim: "occasional weeping at one fitting he's been monitoring" | $2,500–4,000 direct credit OR seller-replaces-before-closing | Low | NEW Wave 2 lever. Strongest of the Wave 2-confirmed levers. Replacement is $5-9k; partial credit defensible. |
| 2 | Steering cable original 1984 — never replaced | [H] Broker verbatim: "cable has never been replaced. Original 1984 cable + quadrant." | $800–1,500 reduction OR seller-replaces-before-closing | Low | NEW Wave 2 lever. Pre-offshore safety item. Owner-doable but defensible at survey. |
| 3 | Webasto A/C compressor failure — precise quote | [H] Florida Marine Cooling written quote: $1,800 repair OR $4,500 full replacement | $1,800–4,500 direct credit OR seller-fix-before-closing | Low | Sharpened. Wave 1 lever now dollar-precise with written quote in hand. Push for $4,500 (full replacement) given the compressor failed within 12 months — diagnostic confidence in "just a repair" is low. |
| 4 | Six-month listing + two prior price reductions (18.2% off initial) | [H] MarineSource dated price-history confirmed at $54,900 → $49,900 → $44,900 | $1,500–3,000 reduction defensible | Low | Unchanged from Wave 1; remains valid. |
| 5 | Below-WL hose runs original 1984 | [H] Broker verbatim: "Longer hose runs ... are believed original 1984" | $800–1,500 direct credit | Low | NEW Wave 2 lever. Survey will quantify scope. Defensible because broker conceded. |
| 6 | Isotherm refrigeration not installed (seller-admitted) — confirmed reason | [H] Box-vs-plate size mismatch; owner ran out of time | $500–1,000 direct credit (lower than Wave 1 because parts inventory confirmed complete and 6-8 hrs owner install is reasonable) | Low | Slight reduction from Wave 1. Confirmed scope is smaller than Wave 1 estimated. |
| 7 | 2022 soft grounding (Bahamas, sand bar) — UNVERIFIED damage assessment | [H] Broker verbatim disclosure: "Seller reports no apparent damage" | $0 if survey clean; $2,000–8,000 reduction if survey finds keel-rounding/laminate concerns | Med | NEW Wave 2 finding. Conditional lever. Reserve for post-survey if findings warrant. |
| 8 | Keel-step mast bilge has NOT been opened/inspected since 2019 | [H] Broker verbatim: "seller has not specifically inspected the keel-step zone since the 2019 work" | $0 if survey clean; $1,000–4,000 reduction if moisture found | Med | Sharpened from Wave 1. Conditional lever; survey decides. |
| 9 | Chainplate seals re-bedded 2019 — 7 years on butyl + 4200, mid-life | [H] Broker confirmed seal materials + date | $0–600 if one seal needs re-bedding | Low | Resolved with negotiable scope. Useful framing lever; small dollar. |
| 10 | Transmission fluid service overdue | [M] Broker confirmed "no fluid service records since the engine rebuild" | $150–300 owner-DIY OR symbolic credit | Low | Small but documented. |
| 11 | Forward head hatch — failing bedding compound (seller-admitted) | [H] Broker verbatim: "Bedding compound at the hatch frame is failing — slow drip during heavy rain. Easy re-bed." | $200–500 direct credit OR included in survey-list | Low | NEW Wave 2 lever. Small but verbatim seller-admitted. |
| 12 | No storm sails + no trysail track on mast | [H] Broker verbatim: "Storm sails: not included. No trysail track on the mast." | $0 — commissioning cost, NOT a lever | — | Wave 2 confirmed. Documented to keep clearly OUT of the negotiation; it is mission-readiness commissioning. |
Levers that DISSOLVED in Wave 2:
- Engine identity (Wave 1 Lever #4): dissolved. 3YM30AE confirmed with rebuild invoice on file. No negative lever.
- Fuel tank material (Wave 1 Lever #7, fuel side): dissolved. SS confirmed with 2018 replacement invoice. No negative lever on fuel side.
- Battery bank age + chemistry (Wave 1 Lever #10): dissolved. House bank 2021 (mid-life), start battery 2024. No negative lever.
- Stale broker syndications showing $54,900 (Wave 1 Lever #12): folded into Lever #4 (price history).
Negotiation strategy summary. The strongest standalone levers in Wave 2 are Lever #1 (water tank, $2,500-4,000), Lever #3 (A/C compressor, $1,800-4,500), and Lever #4 (price history framing, $1,500-3,000). Together, anchored conservatively, these justify USD 5,800-7,500 below asking — an opening offer in the USD 37,500 – 39,000 band with documented evidence cited for each. Realistic close point given typical broker-buyer dynamic and the seller's demonstrated willingness to move: USD 40,500 – 42,500.
The two conditional levers (Lever #7, grounding; Lever #8, keel-step bilge) should be held in reserve as survey-contingent. If the survey finds clean, do not reach for them — leverage credibility carries forward to closing. If the survey finds concerns, they provide the second-stage renegotiation room.
Total Wave 2 lever capacity, weighted by confidence: USD 7,800 – 19,800 below asking — broader than Wave 1's $6,500-16,500 because the new tank + steering + hose findings outweigh the engine + fuel-tank dissolutions.
Recommended opening offer band: USD 39,500 – 41,500. This is the lower-middle of the Wave 2 Normal Older Boat fair-value range AND ~$3,400-5,400 below asking — defensible from the three strongest [H] levers without burning the conditional ones.
Final Verdict
Conditional Go.
At an opening offer of USD 39,500 – 41,500, with the contingency that a competent marine survey at Camachee Cove (seller-cooperative haul-out arrangement confirmed) clears the three structural-zone unknowns. Realistic close price band given a clean survey: USD 40,500 – 42,500.
The boat is mission-appropriate, well-documented, and broker-responsive. The seller has demonstrated willingness to move on price (two prior reductions), willingness to disclose defects (water tank, A/C compressor, hatch bedding, grounding history), and willingness to facilitate survey (Camachee Cove haul-out at modest cost, splittable). These are the signals of a transaction that can close cleanly.
The three things that would change THIS verdict:
Surveyor finds the keel-step mast bilge dry, mast-base un-corroded, AND no chainplate-seal moisture readings >15% AND no laminate damage from the 2022 soft grounding. → unconditional Go at the negotiated price. Close confidently.
Surveyor finds any one of: wet keel-step bilge with mast-base corrosion OR significant chainplate-seal moisture (>20% at two or more bases) OR detectable keel-laminate damage from the 2022 grounding OR water-tank failure beyond the one weeping fitting. → No-Go at $40k+ OR major renegotiation pushing opening offer into the USD 32,000 – 36,000 band.
The mission-readiness commissioning gap (USD 23-44k of one-time costs the BUYER absorbs) cannot be brought into the buyer's actual usable budget within the this-season timeline. → Conditional No-Go independent of the boat — the issue is fit-to-budget, not fit-to-mission. In that case, the honest path is to shift the timeline by a season OR look at a slightly less-refit-heavy hull at $30-35k that leaves more budget room for commissioning.
Mission-Fit Verdict, Image-Derived Evidence Highlights, Cross-Source Market Intelligence, Custom Survey Focus Brief, Surveyor Introduction, 5/10-year Cost Model, Mission-Readiness Commissioning Costs, Tax & Jurisdictional Cost Exposure, and Dependency Risk Cascade are unchanged from the Wave 1 report and remain valid. Refer to the original report for those sections.
FairKeel — Advisory only, not a marine survey. Independent professional survey required before purchase.